Sort-of-live blogging...
The long of the short of it is that nobody really dropped the ball. Of course Kerry was more articulate than Bush. Kerry left some holes open that Bush failed to exploit effectively. Bush got a bit flustered during the middle, and it'll cost him a bit, but then again, who expected Bush to be articulate?
Minor tidbit, the agreement was that the entire talk was to be on national security issues. That explains Bush's grimace on the reference to stem-cell issue.
One pundit makes a good point - CIA thinks ObL in Pakistan - doesn't matter if you send troops to Afghanistan but they can't go into Pakistan. A CNN pundit made some really good points about Kerry and factual problems.
Bush needs to cut down on the grimacing.
Kerry is handing Bush a couple of good points if he's willing to use them - among other things noting that France and Germany have indicated that they wouldn't send troops, even if Kerry is elected.
Additionally, at :41, Kerry has noted that we need to go after their staging areas, etc. Bush should get on him.
One of the things that Bush needs to hit on is the 9/10 angle - particularly that invading North Africa made sense after Pearl Harbor - provided that you have a nuanced, comprehensive view of the War on Terror. His opponent thinks that the only response to Pearl Harbor would have been to hunt down Yamamoto.
In response to the "was it worth it, in terms of lives?" questions. The response is that each life is of immense value. But at what price freedom? It is a unique characteristic of a free society is that we understand the price of freedom and sometimes that price is paid in blood. My opponent wants to denigrate the losses of our troops and allies, by minimizing their sacrifices. He attempts to shoehorn our policies abroad into destructive campaign politics at home. Etc...
I would also like to see how Kerry squares crapping on Bush for using Afghan troops in Tora Bora with the notion of working with allies.
Somebody fact check Kerry on the "out in six-months, provided we have done all the wonderous steps I've outlined" quote at :49
Drive home more effectively on the Lockhart 'puppet' quote. Ask how he intends to build alliances when his own staff denigrates foreign heads of state.
All in all Kerry is coming off better out of this, over all. Bush is hesitating a bit much and seems to be a bit flustered. Kerry is opening up some holes, but Bush has not been super-effective in making them work.
Kerry's opened up that "crummy Afghan" line again - work the allies angle again. Bush needs to open up the WWII angle in re Iraq v Osama.
Interesting that Kerry has backed up the President on the pre-emptive strike business. Bush should make him square this with his comment on responding when attacked.
Global test angle, good line. Pound on that, asking for editorials in Le Monde. ICC is a good red-state line. But American policy based on American interests. Could also make Kerry hang with the global test angle in re not asking for a permission slip (see Kerry nomination speech).
Bush needs to hit up on the Libya angle a lot more aggressively. Especially noting that it was the US and UK, not the UN that brokered the agreement.
On the NK response, work the allies angle - Kerry stands there talking about working with allies, and in North Korea, he now shuns a multi-lateral coalition.
Did Lehrer just hand Bush a big ole' point, by noting that Kerry pooh-poohded the multinational talks in NK? Then Bush gets the 'more sanctions?' angle on Iran.
Kerry on Darfur now. Open up Kerry on this and Haiti on working outside of the UN. Just said we should do X, but we can't do X. Nail him on this. Two points in one answer. Kerry now is hitting on his force increases points - Bush should mention that this is a responsibility left to Congress. Bush is doing OK with Darfur, more or less.
Bush's laugh line fell a bit flat. But he's taking a good solid line with Kerry on the make-nice question. Good points with daughters, Yale, senate service, etc. Not a bad line, "there must be certainty within the councils of the US government."
Oops Kerry made a boo-boo in making his complements about Bush sound weak. Also, point to Bush for interrupting to thank Kerry. Makes Kerry look like a much more dour, unsociable (ungrateful?) fellow. On the Bush rebuttal, he needs to show 9/10-9/11 change in a shift of tactics, but not change in core values.
Kerry has a strong line on proliferation. Hell of a lot stronger than Gore's gibberish and book. Very good line on securing fissile materials.
Actually, the bunker-buster nukes make all manner of sense, but that's a post for another day. Christ, Kerry just lost a handle on me with this aggressive dovish angle on linking nuke research and proliferation. Bush is responding well on the proliferation, although I don't know that he needed to hit on the Missile Defense program.
Fact-check in Aisle 3: Did counter-proliferation funding increase or decrease during the Bush administration.
Lehrer just made a solid point with proliferation threats to security. Now Bush needs to hit on Libya (w/o the UN), Iraq (w/o the UN), Kerry wants to destroy multilateral coalition dealing with North Korea. Additionally, these bribed and coerced allies helped us unravel the Kahn network.
W/r/t to NK talks, Bush needs to highlight the success of the '94 framework agreement and the cheating on Uranium, which these same bilateral talks allowed.
This is the first time Kerry's actually made some sort of vague useful sense of the Vietnam angle. But still... Damn, he still left that freedom/fear line badly - read Lileks ferchrissakes. "We cannot let Fear rule our future - our future must be governed by freedom!"
Good for Bush hitting that anti-draft line. Good hit on the not-at-home, and no-permission-slip line. Damn, when did Bush get good? His closing bit is nice, nice. Very, very presidential. Wow.