Alas, I think George W. Bush is going to lose. My primary reasoning is that his campaigning abilities sort of mirror his statesmanship. He had (by my count) two late golden opportunities to break this election wide open (al Qaqaa, and the Bin Laden threat to US States) and wasn't sufficiently nimble to take advantage of either. So this prediction really has nothing to do with the polls. I'll say later why I think this mirrors his statecraft, and how that plays into his implementation of the "peace through democracy and prosperity" paradigm, but I think he failed the test.
I hope I'm wrong, and you can flail me with a wet noodle if he pulls it out. I have things to learn in this area. But my assessment is that Bush lacks a political instinct, and though I think it's not terribly impressive, I believe Kerry does have that ability. I endorse Bush, mainly because I have no real reason to vote for Kerry. He has not been sufficiently honest to tell me whether he grasps or understands the "peace through democracy and prosperity" paradigm, and if he can't do that I can't give him my vote. But if he wins, as I predict he will, I'll adopt a "wait and see" attitude.
His first test will be to seek reconciliation with the Vietnam vets. If he can manage that, I think the omens are pretty good... because maintenance of that reconciliation will mean that at some point he'll have to repudiate the peace crowd. This will be his naked lunch. If he comes through it, he'll be a good and important President. If he does not (which is probably more likely) the Presidency will destroy him. If he does not, I don't think 2008 will see Kerry running again. His political career will be dead.
Well, there it is. If I'm wrong, and I sincerely hope I am, then I'll take W Ketchup with that crow, please.
Update: Bill Whittle agrees with me, but there's madness in his method.
Update 2: Via Roger L. Simon: "In the short run, it feels as if we are all giving each other psychotherapy. Some people prefer to believe the worst inorder not to be disappointed."
Well, he may have my number.
(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Demosophia and Anticipatory Retaliation)
I hope... nay, I pray that you are wrong! Will gladly volunteer to whip you with a wet noodle for your disheartened pessimism.
Posted by: Michele at November 3, 2004 12:23 AMJust hold on. As a degreed professional in mathematics (specifically statistical methods) the exit polling data is WAY off on this race. Take the exit polling, give Bush about 3-5 points and then recalculate. Apparently all those young voters aren't dodging the draft with Clinton.
Posted by: CO Smith at November 3, 2004 02:44 AMDemo-guy,
I've made my prediction some times ago - and I'll hold to that until midday tomorrow.
But, even if Bush loses, it's still not all bad yet. For that, we reserve McGovern.
Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at November 3, 2004 04:52 AMTold ya....
Sometimes I'm just curious if these 'polling' outfits aren't all owned by Soros. No one, and I mean NO ONE screws up an exit poll.
IE: They vote, you ask your question, you adjust for demographics, you report. My mother can do that... sometimes.. when she's not on her valium inhaler.
Posted by: CO Smith at November 3, 2004 02:30 PM